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behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.854166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Aston Villa come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.854166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.068,"defence":-0.03,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.01,"defence":-0.029,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.8,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.09,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.35,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.1,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.359,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"possession_gap":3.7},"strength":0.147,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manchester United are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Aston Villa have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"250 yellow cards in this referee's last 58 games, where 232 would be usual in this league, and 11 reds.","evidence":{"matches":58,"yellows_per_match":4.31,"reds_per_match":0.19,"league_yellows_per_match":4.01,"league_reds_per_match":0.175,"yellow_ratio":1.08,"red_ratio":1.09},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 110 km for Aston Villa.","evidence":{"travel_km":110},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.4,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20967274206900563},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Manchester United have been out-created in seven of their last ten games. Meanwhile, Aston Villa are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7246,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":209632,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":17,"home_team":"Manchester United","away_team_id":3,"away_team":"Aston Villa","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4405,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209632,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:30:00Z","home_team":"Manchester United","away_team":"Aston Villa","polymarket_event_id":"1289723","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":35725.1893,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.44,"best_ask":0.45,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.08,"Manchester United FC 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC":0.0465,"Manchester United FC 0 - 1 Aston Villa FC":0.0565,"Manchester United FC 0 - 2 Aston Villa FC":0.039,"Manchester United FC 0 - 3 Aston Villa FC":0.0125,"Manchester United FC 0 - 4 Aston Villa FC":0.009,"Manchester United FC 0 - 5 Aston Villa FC":0.0085,"Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC":0.075,"Manchester United FC 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC":0.12,"Manchester United FC 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC":0.075,"Manchester United FC 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC":0.034,"Manchester United FC 1 - 4 Aston Villa FC":0.0145,"Manchester United FC 1 - 5 Aston Villa FC":0.01,"Manchester United FC 2 - 0 Aston Villa FC":0.06,"Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC":0.095,"Manchester United FC 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC":0.075,"Manchester United FC 2 - 3 Aston Villa FC":0.0295,"Manchester United FC 2 - 4 Aston Villa FC":0.0085,"Manchester United FC 2 - 5 Aston Villa FC":0.0055,"Manchester United FC 3 - 0 Aston Villa FC":0.033,"Manchester United FC 3 - 1 Aston Villa FC":0.0525,"Manchester United FC 3 - 2 Aston Villa FC":0.0395,"Manchester United FC 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC":0.0195,"Manchester United FC 3 - 4 Aston Villa FC":0.0075,"Manchester United FC 3 - 5 Aston Villa FC":0.024,"Manchester United FC 4 - 0 Aston Villa FC":0.016,"Manchester United FC 4 - 1 Aston Villa FC":0.0215,"Manchester United FC 4 - 2 Aston Villa FC":0.0165,"Manchester United FC 4 - 3 Aston Villa FC":0.0095,"Manchester United FC 4 - 4 Aston Villa FC":0.004,"Manchester United FC 4 - 5 Aston Villa FC":0.064,"Manchester United FC 5 - 0 Aston Villa FC":0.0075,"Manchester United FC 5 - 1 Aston Villa FC":0.0105,"Manchester United FC 5 - 2 Aston Villa FC":0.008,"Manchester United FC 5 - 3 Aston Villa FC":0.0105,"Manchester United FC 5 - 4 Aston Villa FC":0.064,"Manchester United FC 5 - 5 Aston Villa FC":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T04:57:40Z"}},"computed_at":1794046772,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#dd1422","away":"#5c9ad6"},"venue":{"name":"Old Trafford","city":"Manchester","capacity":74879},"pulled":[],"published":[]}