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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.786,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.214,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":11,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":13,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":12,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":12,"gap_to_safety":5,"gap_to_europe":2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daniel Farke has 25 matches in charge at Leeds United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Daniel Farke","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":209,"ppm":1.64,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Roberto De Zerbi has 24 matches in charge at Tottenham Hotspur, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Roberto De Zerbi","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.71,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.4,"after_ppm":2.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Leeds United come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tottenham Hotspur come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.791666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.055,"defence":0.088,"effective_matches":12.9,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.081,"defence":0.077,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tottenham Hotspur average 14 points more possession than Leeds United, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Tottenham Hotspur work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.8,"shots":12.4,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":4.2,"corners_per_shot":0.337,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":62.9,"shots":16,"xg_per_shot":0.083,"corners":7.8,"corners_per_shot":0.484,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"possession_gap":-14.1},"strength":0.563,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Leeds United are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tottenham Hotspur are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"157 yellow cards in this referee's last 32 games, where 128 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds.","evidence":{"matches":32,"yellows_per_match":4.91,"reds_per_match":0.281,"league_yellows_per_match":4.01,"league_reds_per_match":0.175,"yellow_ratio":1.22,"red_ratio":1.61},"strength":0.202,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":5.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 263 km for Tottenham Hotspur.","evidence":{"travel_km":263},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.5,"temperature_c":8,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20967274206900563},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Spurs will dictate this match despite their habit of dropping points when they create the better openings. Their football is superior to their recent scores, and in seven of their last eight matches, they have dominated possession to create threats. Contrast this with Leeds, who are on a downward slide. Their last four matches have been their worst for both conceding and creating. Without Joe Rodon to steady the back line, Leeds will struggle to contain a Spurs side that keeps the ball so well. Leeds are stronger at their own ground, but they are missing Mateo Joseph to lead the attack. Tottenham are missing six players, yet they still create enough to win. Ball control decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7154,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":209631,"event_date":"2026-11-07T12:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":19,"home_team":"Leeds United","away_team_id":9,"away_team":"Tottenham Hotspur","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":37,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3701,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209631,"event_date":"2026-11-07T12:30:00Z","home_team":"Leeds United","away_team":"Tottenham Hotspur","polymarket_event_id":"1283296","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":476,"liquidity_clob":140358.5304,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.33,"best_ask":0.34,"change_1d":-0.02,"change_1wk":-0.035,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.07,"Leeds United FC 0 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.075,"Leeds United FC 0 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.095,"Leeds United FC 0 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0625,"Leeds United FC 0 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0265,"Leeds United FC 0 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0095,"Leeds United FC 0 - 5 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0045,"Leeds United FC 1 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.09,"Leeds United FC 1 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.14,"Leeds United FC 1 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.085,"Leeds United FC 1 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0375,"Leeds United FC 1 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0125,"Leeds United FC 1 - 5 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0045,"Leeds United FC 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.055,"Leeds United FC 2 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.08,"Leeds United FC 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.055,"Leeds United FC 2 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.025,"Leeds United FC 2 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.01,"Leeds United FC 2 - 5 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.009,"Leeds United FC 3 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0235,"Leeds United FC 3 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.032,"Leeds United FC 3 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0235,"Leeds United FC 3 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.012,"Leeds United FC 3 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0035,"Leeds United FC 3 - 5 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.25,"Leeds United FC 4 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.009,"Leeds United FC 4 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.01,"Leeds United FC 4 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.009,"Leeds United FC 4 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.003,"Leeds United FC 4 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0335,"Leeds United FC 4 - 5 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.084,"Leeds United FC 5 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0085,"Leeds United FC 5 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.0035,"Leeds United FC 5 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.008,"Leeds United FC 5 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.08,"Leeds United FC 5 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.097,"Leeds United FC 5 - 5 Tottenham Hotspur FC":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T13:57:29Z"}},"computed_at":1793974182,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d619f","away":"#162d69"},"venue":{"name":"Elland Road","city":"Leeds","capacity":37890},"pulled":[],"published":[]}