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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20967274206900563},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7341,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":209630,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":200,"home_team":"Ipswich Town","away_team_id":2,"away_team":"Bournemouth","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":49.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4907,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209630,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Ipswich Town","away_team":"Bournemouth","polymarket_event_id":"1288956","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":46632.356,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.23,"best_ask":0.24,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.105,"Ipswich Town FC 0 - 0 AFC Bournemouth":0.057,"Ipswich Town FC 0 - 1 AFC Bournemouth":0.085,"Ipswich Town FC 0 - 2 AFC Bournemouth":0.075,"Ipswich Town FC 0 - 3 AFC Bournemouth":0.045,"Ipswich Town FC 0 - 4 AFC Bournemouth":0.0195,"Ipswich Town FC 0 - 5 AFC Bournemouth":0.009,"Ipswich Town FC 1 - 0 AFC Bournemouth":0.055,"Ipswich Town FC 1 - 1 AFC Bournemouth":0.125,"Ipswich Town FC 1 - 2 AFC Bournemouth":0.1,"Ipswich Town FC 1 - 3 AFC Bournemouth":0.0555,"Ipswich Town FC 1 - 4 AFC Bournemouth":0.022,"Ipswich Town FC 1 - 5 AFC Bournemouth":0.0105,"Ipswich Town FC 2 - 0 AFC Bournemouth":0.033,"Ipswich Town FC 2 - 1 AFC Bournemouth":0.065,"Ipswich Town FC 2 - 2 AFC Bournemouth":0.065,"Ipswich Town FC 2 - 3 AFC Bournemouth":0.035,"Ipswich Town FC 2 - 4 AFC Bournemouth":0.013,"Ipswich Town FC 2 - 5 AFC Bournemouth":0.006,"Ipswich Town FC 3 - 0 AFC Bournemouth":0.012,"Ipswich Town FC 3 - 1 AFC Bournemouth":0.0215,"Ipswich Town FC 3 - 2 AFC Bournemouth":0.0215,"Ipswich Town FC 3 - 3 AFC Bournemouth":0.0135,"Ipswich Town FC 3 - 4 AFC Bournemouth":0.007,"Ipswich Town FC 3 - 5 AFC Bournemouth":0.01,"Ipswich Town FC 4 - 0 AFC Bournemouth":0.0035,"Ipswich Town FC 4 - 1 AFC Bournemouth":0.0055,"Ipswich Town FC 4 - 2 AFC Bournemouth":0.0055,"Ipswich Town FC 4 - 3 AFC Bournemouth":0.0035,"Ipswich Town FC 4 - 4 AFC Bournemouth":0.009,"Ipswich Town FC 4 - 5 AFC Bournemouth":0.054,"Ipswich Town FC 5 - 0 AFC Bournemouth":0.033,"Ipswich Town FC 5 - 1 AFC Bournemouth":0.008,"Ipswich Town FC 5 - 2 AFC Bournemouth":0.006,"Ipswich Town FC 5 - 3 AFC Bournemouth":0.05,"Ipswich Town FC 5 - 4 AFC Bournemouth":0.055,"Ipswich Town FC 5 - 5 AFC Bournemouth":0.0395},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:38Z"}},"computed_at":1794046768,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Bournemouth have too much quality for an Ipswich side that is currently riding its luck. The visitors have carved out better openings in 7 of their last 10 games. Contrast that with Ipswich, currently 14th in the table, who have been out-created in 6 of their last 10. While the home side have scored 17 goals recently from chances that usually bring 12, that clinical finishing is running hot and likely to cool. Ipswich have lost 3 of their last 6 because they give up too much at the back. Bournemouth have kept 5 clean sheets in 6, proving they can shut down teams that do not build sustained pressure. Without their usual midfield depth, they may lose some control, but Evanilson will provide the","drivers":[],"set_aside":[{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gary O'Neil is 12 games into the job at Ipswich Town, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Gary O'Neil","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":86,"ppm":1.42,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Marco Rose is 15 games into the job at Bournemouth, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Marco Rose","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":78,"ppm":2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#16408a","away":"#bf1216"},"venue":{"name":"Portman Road Stadium","city":"Ipswich","capacity":29673},"pulled":[],"published":[]}