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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":19,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":12,"gap_to_europe":-5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":14,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fabian Hurzeler has 25 matches in charge at Brighton & Hove Albion, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Fabian Hurzeler","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":212,"ppm":2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Leroy Rosenior is 1 game into the job at Brentford. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Leroy Rosenior","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":621,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Brentford come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.958333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.194,"defence":0.102,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":0.099,"defence":0.013,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":56.4,"shots":18.7,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.299,"finishing_vs_xg":0.38},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.7,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.293,"finishing_vs_xg":0.31},"possession_gap":4.8},"strength":0.19,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Brighton & Hove Albion have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.38,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Brentford have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.31,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"230 yellow cards in this referee's last 64 games, where 256 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds.","evidence":{"matches":64,"yellows_per_match":3.59,"reds_per_match":0.109,"league_yellows_per_match":4.01,"league_reds_per_match":0.175,"yellow_ratio":0.9,"red_ratio":0.63},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-2.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 72 km for Brentford.","evidence":{"travel_km":72},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.7,"temperature_c":10,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20967274206900563},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Third hosts sixth in a fascinating clash where underlying numbers tell the true story. Brighton produce superior chances nearly every single week while Brentford get out-created in most of their recent outings. The hosts keep things remarkably tight at the back with four clean sheets in six, yet they miss six men in all and face a quick turnaround into their fourth fixture in a fortnight. Brentford travel poorly and miss four players, which hurts their midfield control. This is where it is decided because Brighton dominate the creative battle, meaning the home side will dictate the tempo and punish leaky visitors.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7337,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":209626,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":5,"home_team":"Brighton & Hove Albion","away_team_id":16,"away_team":"Brentford","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":49.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4929,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209626,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Brighton & Hove Albion","away_team":"Brentford","polymarket_event_id":"1288950","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":142520.1011,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.52,"best_ask":0.53,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.13,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 0 Brentford FC":0.0475,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 1 Brentford FC":0.0495,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 2 Brentford FC":0.0315,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 3 Brentford FC":0.01,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 4 Brentford FC":0.005,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 5 Brentford FC":0.142,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 0 Brentford FC":0.08,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 1 Brentford FC":0.11,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 2 Brentford FC":0.065,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 3 Brentford FC":0.0255,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 4 Brentford FC":0.0085,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 5 Brentford FC":0.009,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 0 Brentford FC":0.075,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 1 Brentford FC":0.1,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 2 Brentford FC":0.065,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 3 Brentford FC":0.0265,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 4 Brentford FC":0.008,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 5 Brentford FC":0.0085,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 0 Brentford FC":0.045,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 1 Brentford FC":0.0605,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 2 Brentford FC":0.041,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 3 Brentford FC":0.0175,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 4 Brentford FC":0.006,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 5 Brentford FC":0.16,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4 - 0 Brentford FC":0.0165,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4 - 1 Brentford FC":0.0185,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4 - 2 Brentford FC":0.0095,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4 - 3 Brentford FC":0.0075,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4 - 4 Brentford FC":0.0035,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4 - 5 Brentford FC":0.157,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5 - 0 Brentford FC":0.01,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5 - 1 Brentford FC":0.009,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5 - 2 Brentford FC":0.008,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5 - 3 Brentford FC":0.0105,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5 - 4 Brentford FC":0.183,"Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5 - 5 Brentford FC":0.0395},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:39Z"}},"computed_at":1794046769,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c4b93","away":"#b40f0f"},"venue":{"name":"American Express Stadium","city":"Falmer","capacity":31876},"pulled":[],"published":[]}