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The league leaders usually dictate play and turn possession into clear opportunities. Hull are struggling at the back, letting opponents fire six or more shots on target in four of their last six matches. They are being opened up far too easily. Arsenal are missing their top scorer and his ability to finish moves, which removes a big chunk of their goals. Without their primary threat out wide and their creative presence in the middle, the leaders might not be as clinical. However, they will still control the pitch. The sheer volume of chances Arsenal create decides it.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Arsenal are without 4 players, and Bukayo Saka and Max Dowman are real losses.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.286,"combined_importance":0.329,"players":[{"player":"Bukayo Saka","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.214,"importance":0.17,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4,"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","in_form"]},{"player":"Max Dowman","role":"MID","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.116,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Ezri Konsa","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.071,"importance":0.043,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Louie Copley","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.823,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.736,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.264,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Arsenal average 22 points more possession than Hull City, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Hull City work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.5,"shots":15,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.328,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.07},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":38,"shots":11,"xg_per_shot":0.099,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.447,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.09},"possession_gap":21.5},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":4.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-4.5}]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#d41117","away":"#de8512"},"venue":{"name":"Emirates Stadium","city":"London","capacity":60704},"pulled":[],"published":[]}