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Jakirović","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":212,"ppm":1.32,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gary O'Neil is 11 games into the job at Ipswich Town, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Gary O'Neil","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":78,"ppm":1.45,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hull City come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ipswich Town come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.833333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.095,"defence":0.014,"effective_matches":6.3,"shrunk":0.56},"away":{"attack":-0.002,"defence":-0.205,"effective_matches":6.9,"shrunk":0.54}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":38.6,"shots":11.2,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.394,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.3},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.6,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":3.3,"corners_per_shot":0.304,"finishing_vs_xg":0.72},"possession_gap":-6},"strength":0.24,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hull City have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.3,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ipswich Town have scored 9 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.72,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"161 yellow cards in this referee's last 39 games, where 154 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds.","evidence":{"matches":39,"yellows_per_match":4.13,"reds_per_match":0.154,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.156,"yellow_ratio":1.05,"red_ratio":0.99},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 214 km for Ipswich Town.","evidence":{"travel_km":214},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.2,"temperature_c":11,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.18930167671370482},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Hull City have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. On top of that, they have conceded only 10 in their last ten when the chances they allowed would usually cost about 14. Their goalkeeper and their luck have carried them. Meanwhile, Ipswich Town have been out-created in six of their last ten games. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6344,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":209620,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":204,"home_team":"Hull City","away_team_id":200,"away_team":"Ipswich Town","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":36.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3642,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209620,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:00:00Z","home_team":"Hull City","away_team":"Ipswich Town","polymarket_event_id":"1241170","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":384,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T15:57:24Z"}},"computed_at":1793413155,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#de8512","away":"#16408a"},"venue":{"name":"MKM Stadium","city":"Hull","capacity":25586},"pulled":[],"published":[]}