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Injury","goal_share":0.167,"importance":0.017,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["in_form"]},{"player":"Romaine Mundle","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.19,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.641,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.359,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":29,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":19,"points":6,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":5,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":-2,"gap_to_europe":6},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Frank Lampard has 20 matches in charge at Coventry City, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Frank Lampard","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":212,"ppm":1.55,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Régis Le Bris has 24 matches in charge at Sunderland, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Régis Le Bris","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":196,"ppm":1.46,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Coventry City come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.142,"defence":-0.045,"effective_matches":6.3,"shrunk":0.56},"away":{"attack":-0.089,"defence":-0.056,"effective_matches":12.5,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":42.2,"shots":11.2,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":3.3,"corners_per_shot":0.298,"finishing_vs_xg":0.25},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.8,"shots":14.4,"xg_per_shot":0.125,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.364,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.73},"possession_gap":-5.7},"strength":0.227,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Coventry City are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.25,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sunderland have scored 9 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.73,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"88 yellow cards in this referee's last 21 games, where 83 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 21 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":21,"yellows_per_match":4.19,"reds_per_match":0.19,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.156,"yellow_ratio":1.06,"red_ratio":1.22,"sample":21,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 275 km for Sunderland.","evidence":{"travel_km":275},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.9,"temperature_c":10,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.18930167671370482},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Coventry City are in trouble, and not only on results. Coventry City have been out-created in six of their last ten games. As for the other side, Sunderland are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. And they have scored only 11 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 18. The goals are coming. Until Coventry City sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6379,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":209619,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":203,"home_team":"Coventry City","away_team_id":7,"away_team":"Sunderland","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":40.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.406,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209619,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:00:00Z","home_team":"Coventry City","away_team":"Sunderland","polymarket_event_id":"1241176","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":360,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T00:57:24Z"}},"computed_at":1793413156,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#eb2639"},"venue":{"name":"Coventry Building Society Arena","city":"Coventry","capacity":32609},"pulled":[],"published":[]}