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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":29,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":11,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":0},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":6,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 3-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Keith Andrews has 20 matches in charge at Brentford, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Keith Andrews","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Oliver Glasner has 18 matches in charge at Nottingham Forest, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Oliver Glasner","matches_in_charge":18,"tenure_days":106,"ppm":1.22,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nottingham Forest come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.833333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.112,"defence":-0.007,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.027,"defence":0.035,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.5,"shots":16.3,"xg_per_shot":0.127,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.297,"finishing_vs_xg":0.51},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47,"shots":16.1,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.299,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.65},"possession_gap":5.5},"strength":0.22,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Brentford have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.51,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nottingham Forest have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.65,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"151 yellow cards in this referee's last 36 games, where 142 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":36,"yellows_per_match":4.19,"reds_per_match":0.083,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.156,"yellow_ratio":1.06,"red_ratio":0.53},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 171 km for Nottingham Forest.","evidence":{"travel_km":171},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":16.2,"temperature_c":12,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.18930167671370482},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. Away from home, Nottingham Forest have made the better chances in all of their last four away games. And they shoot plenty but from poor positions: 25 on target from 113 shots in their last six. On top of that, they have scored only 6 in their last nine from chances that would usually bring about 13. The goals are coming. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6382,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":209617,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":16,"home_team":"Brentford","away_team_id":15,"away_team":"Nottingham Forest","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":45.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4571,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209617,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:00:00Z","home_team":"Brentford","away_team":"Nottingham Forest","polymarket_event_id":"1241164","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T13:57:22Z"}},"computed_at":1793409475,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#b40f0f","away":"#d0122c"},"venue":{"name":"Brentford Community Stadium","city":"London","capacity":17250},"pulled":[],"published":[]}