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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0104166666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.02,"defence":-0.003,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.074,"defence":0.065,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fulham average 11 points more possession than Aston Villa, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Fulham work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.6,"shots":15.9,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":0.4},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":60.8,"shots":15.5,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":6.8,"corners_per_shot":0.442,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.45},"possession_gap":-11.2},"strength":0.447,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Aston Villa have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.4,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fulham have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.45,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"153 yellow cards in this referee's last 43 games, where 170 would be usual in this league, and 1 red.","evidence":{"matches":43,"yellows_per_match":3.56,"reds_per_match":0.023,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.156,"yellow_ratio":0.9,"red_ratio":0.15},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-2.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 162 km for Fulham.","evidence":{"travel_km":162},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9.9,"temperature_c":8,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.18930167671370482},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Fulham play better football than their results show, creating superior chances yet underperforming their finishing. They waste openings while Aston Villa ride the red-hot form of Nicolas Jackson, whose recent brace against Manchester City powers a run of four wins from six. Fulham control matches through clever movement and create plenty, but poor finishing masks their true threat. They will carve open a depleted Villa defence missing crucial bodies across the backline and central midfield. Without a shield in front of the defence, Villa will concede territory. Fulham take control here, and their overdue goals arrive at last.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6282,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":209615,"event_date":"2026-10-31T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3,"home_team":"Aston Villa","away_team_id":6,"away_team":"Fulham","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":47.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4788,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209615,"event_date":"2026-10-31T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Aston Villa","away_team":"Fulham","polymarket_event_id":"1242594","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T07:27:26Z"}},"computed_at":1793435742,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#5c9ad6","away":"#b70f0f"},"venue":{"name":"Villa Park","city":"Birmingham","capacity":42640},"pulled":[],"published":[]}