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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":4,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":-2,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":10,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Régis Le Bris has 22 matches in charge at Sunderland, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Régis Le 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fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.074,"defence":-0.078,"effective_matches":12.1,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":-0.006,"defence":0.082,"effective_matches":12.1,"shrunk":0.4}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Sunderland work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.3,"shots":14.7,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.419,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.7},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47,"shots":13.5,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.279,"finishing_vs_xg":0.19},"possession_gap":3.3},"strength":0.13,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sunderland have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.7,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Leeds United are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"155 yellow cards in this referee's last 33 games, where 130 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":33,"yellows_per_match":4.7,"reds_per_match":0.152,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.161,"yellow_ratio":1.19,"red_ratio":0.94},"strength":0.173,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":4.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 127 km for Leeds United.","evidence":{"travel_km":127},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":2.9,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21006670999336188},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. Sunderland are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. And they are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. On top of that, they have scored only 10 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 19. The goals are coming. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5907,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":209614,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":7,"home_team":"Sunderland","away_team_id":19,"away_team":"Leeds United","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":38.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3837,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209614,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:30:00Z","home_team":"Sunderland","away_team":"Leeds United","polymarket_event_id":"1226461","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T05:57:23Z"}},"computed_at":1792828956,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#eb2639","away":"#0d619f"},"venue":{"name":"Stadium of Light","city":"Sunderland","capacity":48707},"pulled":[],"published":[]}