{"id":209613,"league_id":1,"league":"Premier League","kickoff":1792936800,"home":"Manchester United","away":"Bournemouth","home_id":17,"away_id":2,"venue_id":17,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.673,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.63,1.26],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Passing on Manchester United v Bournemouth. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"Manchester United have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0, and 0.50 a game at home."},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","note":"Since opening, AWAY has shortened 18.0% since the market opened."}],"lambda_home":1.6259968763569228,"lambda_away":1.2603263304993402,"corner_rate":9.41,"card_rate":0.09,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.768,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":1788,"name":"Senne Lammens","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.801},{"id":1791,"name":"Luke Shaw","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.245},{"id":4118,"name":"Harry Maguire","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.702},{"id":1789,"name":"Leny Yoro","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.506},{"id":1795,"name":"Diogo Dalot","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.744},{"id":514,"name":"Youri Tielemans","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.781},{"id":388,"name":"Andrey Santos","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.441},{"id":750,"name":"Marcus Rashford","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.277},{"id":1794,"name":"Bruno Fernandes","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.827},{"id":1796,"name":"Bryan Mbeumo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.812},{"id":1798,"name":"Joshua Zirkzee","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.291},{"id":4119,"name":"Matheus Cunha","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.603},{"id":1799,"name":"Noussair Mazraoui","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.413},{"id":1797,"name":"Mason Mount","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.383},{"id":487,"name":"Carlos Baleba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.359},{"id":1800,"name":"Lisandro Martínez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.341},{"id":1802,"name":"Kobbie Mainoo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.327},{"id":1792,"name":"Amad Diallo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.296},{"id":1807,"name":"Shea Lacey","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":1790,"name":"Matthijs de Ligt","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.237},{"id":6169,"name":"Harry Amass","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.226},{"id":8374,"name":"Tyler Fletcher","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":73804,"name":"Daniel Armer","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.768},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":783,"name":"Đorđe Petrović","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.685},{"id":787,"name":"Adrien Truffert","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.737},{"id":2053,"name":"António Silva","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.888},{"id":799,"name":"James Hill","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.823},{"id":801,"name":"Adam Smith","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.691},{"id":788,"name":"Tyler Adams","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.757},{"id":3900,"name":"Ryan Christie","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.594},{"id":794,"name":"Marcus Tavernier","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.817},{"id":791,"name":"Justin Kluivert","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.599},{"id":663,"name":"Rayan","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.675},{"id":795,"name":"Evanilson","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.813},{"id":2371,"name":"Lewis Cook","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.508},{"id":4027,"name":"Ben Gannon-Doak","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.445},{"id":786,"name":"Bafodé Diakité","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.432},{"id":2191,"name":"Michele Di Gregorio","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.35},{"id":2767,"name":"Álvaro Rodriguez","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.342},{"id":796,"name":"Julio Soler","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.336},{"id":2372,"name":"David Brooks","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.274},{"id":790,"name":"Amine Adli","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.233},{"id":6736,"name":"Daniel Jebbison","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.225},{"id":1546,"name":"Juanlu Sánchez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.209},{"id":77521,"name":"Mack Allan","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.877},"unavailable":[{"id":1804,"name":"Ayden Heaven","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Illness"},{"id":4120,"name":"Benjamin Šeško","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Shin Injury"},{"id":378,"name":"Karl Darlow","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":1806,"name":"Manuel Ugarte","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":1801,"name":"Patrick Dorgu","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":4648,"name":"Tom Heaton","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Abdominal Injury"},{"id":789,"name":"Alex Scott","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":3438,"name":"Alex Tóth","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":793,"name":"Eli Junior Kroupi","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Foot Injury"},{"id":800,"name":"Julián Araujo","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":1788,"name":"Senne Lammens","side":"home"},{"id":1791,"name":"Luke Shaw","side":"home"},{"id":4118,"name":"Harry Maguire","side":"home"},{"id":1789,"name":"Leny Yoro","side":"home"},{"id":1795,"name":"Diogo Dalot","side":"home"},{"id":514,"name":"Youri Tielemans","side":"home"},{"id":388,"name":"Andrey Santos","side":"home"},{"id":750,"name":"Marcus Rashford","side":"home"},{"id":1794,"name":"Bruno Fernandes","side":"home"},{"id":1796,"name":"Bryan Mbeumo","side":"home"},{"id":1798,"name":"Joshua Zirkzee","side":"home"},{"id":4119,"name":"Matheus Cunha","side":"home"},{"id":1799,"name":"Noussair Mazraoui","side":"home"},{"id":1797,"name":"Mason Mount","side":"home"},{"id":487,"name":"Carlos Baleba","side":"home"},{"id":1800,"name":"Lisandro Martínez","side":"home"},{"id":1802,"name":"Kobbie Mainoo","side":"home"},{"id":1792,"name":"Amad Diallo","side":"home"},{"id":1807,"name":"Shea Lacey","side":"home"},{"id":1790,"name":"Matthijs de Ligt","side":"home"},{"id":6169,"name":"Harry Amass","side":"home"},{"id":8374,"name":"Tyler Fletcher","side":"home"},{"id":73804,"name":"Daniel Armer","side":"home"},{"id":1804,"name":"Ayden Heaven","side":"home"},{"id":73803,"name":"Jaydan Kamason","side":"home"},{"id":3473,"name":"Tynan Thompson","side":"home"},{"id":4120,"name":"Benjamin Šeško","side":"home"},{"id":78062,"name":"JJ Gabriel","side":"home"},{"id":378,"name":"Karl Darlow","side":"home"},{"id":4648,"name":"Tom Heaton","side":"home"},{"id":36600,"name":"Dermot Mee","side":"home"},{"id":116037,"name":"Fred Heath","side":"home"},{"id":1801,"name":"Patrick Dorgu","side":"home"},{"id":1806,"name":"Manuel Ugarte","side":"home"},{"id":4121,"name":"Jack Fletcher","side":"home"},{"id":783,"name":"Đorđe Petrović","side":"away"},{"id":787,"name":"Adrien Truffert","side":"away"},{"id":2053,"name":"António Silva","side":"away"},{"id":799,"name":"James Hill","side":"away"},{"id":801,"name":"Adam Smith","side":"away"},{"id":788,"name":"Tyler Adams","side":"away"},{"id":3900,"name":"Ryan Christie","side":"away"},{"id":794,"name":"Marcus Tavernier","side":"away"},{"id":791,"name":"Justin Kluivert","side":"away"},{"id":663,"name":"Rayan","side":"away"},{"id":795,"name":"Evanilson","side":"away"},{"id":2371,"name":"Lewis Cook","side":"away"},{"id":4027,"name":"Ben Gannon-Doak","side":"away"},{"id":786,"name":"Bafodé Diakité","side":"away"},{"id":2191,"name":"Michele Di Gregorio","side":"away"},{"id":2767,"name":"Álvaro Rodriguez","side":"away"},{"id":796,"name":"Julio Soler","side":"away"},{"id":2372,"name":"David Brooks","side":"away"},{"id":790,"name":"Amine Adli","side":"away"},{"id":6736,"name":"Daniel Jebbison","side":"away"},{"id":1546,"name":"Juanlu Sánchez","side":"away"},{"id":77521,"name":"Mack Allan","side":"away"},{"id":800,"name":"Julián Araujo","side":"away"},{"id":3014,"name":"Max Aarons","side":"away"},{"id":785,"name":"Veljko Milosavljević","side":"away"},{"id":22864,"name":"Harold William","side":"away"},{"id":205299,"name":"Ameer Ali","side":"away"},{"id":793,"name":"Eli Junior Kroupi","side":"away"},{"id":8431,"name":"Fraser Forster","side":"away"},{"id":77519,"name":"Callan McKenna","side":"away"},{"id":789,"name":"Alex Scott","side":"away"},{"id":3438,"name":"Alex Tóth","side":"away"},{"id":205305,"name":"Ethan Sills","side":"away"},{"id":8663,"name":"Charlie Stevens","side":"away"},{"id":89123,"name":"Zac Christie","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":378,"name":"Karl Darlow","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":1,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.001,"country":{"team":null,"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":4648,"name":"Tom Heaton","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Abdominal Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":3,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.004,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4120,"name":"Benjamin Šeško","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Shin Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":6,"starts":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sabah FK","kickoff":1789066800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.072,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1801,"name":"Patrick Dorgu","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LM","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":11,"starts":5,"goals":1,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"AC Milan","kickoff":1786805100,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-4","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.082,"country":{"team":"Denmark","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":1791,"name":"Luke Shaw","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"doubtful","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-25","season":{"apps":10,"starts":8,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Everton","kickoff":1788699600,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.047,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1796,"name":"Bryan Mbeumo","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":16,"starts":13,"goals":7,"assists":2,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":16,"tracked_starts":13},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Atlético Madrid","kickoff":1785589200,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.328,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":266,"country":0}},{"id":1798,"name":"Joshua Zirkzee","side":"home","team":"Manchester United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":1,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Leeds United","kickoff":1786559400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.071,"country":{"team":null,"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":1,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":47,"country":0}},{"id":789,"name":"Alex Scott","side":"away","team":"Bournemouth","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":6,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Everton","kickoff":1788012000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.064,"country":{"team":null,"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":3438,"name":"Alex Tóth","side":"away","team":"Bournemouth","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":4,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":{"team":"Hungary","apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":15,"country":0}},{"id":793,"name":"Eli Junior Kroupi","side":"away","team":"Bournemouth","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Foot Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":800,"name":"Julián Araujo","side":"away","team":"Bournemouth","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":794,"name":"Marcus Tavernier","side":"away","team":"Bournemouth","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":5,"assists":0,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Newcastle United","kickoff":1788607800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.146,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":211,"country":0}},{"id":795,"name":"Evanilson","side":"away","team":"Bournemouth","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":10,"goals":3,"assists":4,"big_chances":5,"clean_sheets":5,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sunderland","kickoff":1792328400,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_creator","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.162,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":215,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":17,"away":2},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":2},"below":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":3,"l":3},"below":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":831,"name":"Michael Carrick","vs":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1774036800,"score":"2-2","result":"D"}}},"away":{"id":1820,"name":"Marco Rose","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"800":{"caps":30,"goals":0,"country":"Mexico","signed":null},"1796":{"caps":26,"goals":5,"country":"Cameroon","signed":null},"1801":{"caps":19,"goals":3,"country":"Denmark","signed":null},"3438":{"caps":17,"goals":0,"country":"Hungary","signed":{"from":"Ferencváros TC","fee":12000000,"at":1768867200}},"4120":{"caps":37,"goals":9,"country":"Slovenia","signed":{"from":"RB Leipzig","fee":76500000,"at":1754697600}}}},"notable":[{"id":852,"name":"Erling Haaland","goals":8,"rank":1},{"id":332,"name":"Alexander Isak","goals":5,"rank":2},{"id":390,"name":"João Pedro","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":1796,"name":"Bryan Mbeumo","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":794,"name":"Marcus Tavernier","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":511,"name":"Morgan Rogers","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":856,"name":"Rayan Cherki","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":352,"name":"Brian Brobbey","goals":3,"rank":8},{"id":1794,"name":"Bruno Fernandes","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":455,"name":"Bukayo Saka","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":495,"name":"Charalampos Kostoulas","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":371,"name":"Dominic Calvert-Lewin","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":493,"name":"Jack Hinshelwood","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":472,"name":"Kevin Schade","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":6187,"name":"Mohamed Belloumi","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":18,"home_wins":9,"draws":5,"away_wins":4,"home_goals":35,"away_goals":25,"avg_total_goals":3.3333333333333335,"home_win_rate":0.5,"away_win_rate":0.2222222222222222,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Manchester United","date":"2026-03-20T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Bournemouth","score":"2-2","event_id":305,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":17,"home_team_id":2},{"away":"Bournemouth","date":"2025-12-15T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Manchester United","score":"4-4","event_id":160,"away_score":4,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":2,"home_team_id":17},{"away":"Manchester United","date":"2025-04-27T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Bournemouth","score":"1-1","event_id":306989,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":17,"home_team_id":2},{"away":"Bournemouth","date":"2024-12-22T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Manchester United","score":"0-3","event_id":306820,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":2,"home_team_id":17},{"away":"Manchester United","date":"2024-04-13T16:30:00+00:00","home":"Bournemouth","score":"2-2","event_id":312448,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":17,"home_team_id":2},{"away":"Bournemouth","date":"2023-12-09T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Manchester United","score":"0-3","event_id":312275,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":2,"home_team_id":17},{"away":"Manchester United","date":"2023-05-20T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Bournemouth","score":"0-1","event_id":317284,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":17,"home_team_id":2},{"away":"Bournemouth","date":"2023-01-03T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Manchester United","score":"3-0","event_id":317099,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":2,"home_team_id":17},{"away":"Bournemouth","date":"2020-07-04T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Manchester United","score":"5-2","event_id":328726,"away_score":2,"home_score":5,"away_team_id":2,"home_team_id":17},{"away":"Manchester United","date":"2019-11-02T12:30:00+00:00","home":"Bournemouth","score":"1-0","event_id":328500,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":17,"home_team_id":2}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":17,"position":13,"played":7,"points":7,"goal_diff":0,"team_name":"Manchester United","won":1,"drawn":4,"lost":2,"goals_for":10,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":2,"position":15,"played":7,"points":6,"goal_diff":-4,"team_name":"Bournemouth","won":1,"drawn":3,"lost":3,"goals_for":9,"goals_against":13,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"0-3-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"LDDLDL","venue_ppg":0.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":2,"record":"4-0-2","goals_for":1.83,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"won 3","sequence":"WLLWWW","venue_ppg":1.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manchester United are without 10 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":10,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.111,"combined_importance":0.182,"players":[{"player":"Patrick Dorgu","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.082,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Benjamin Šeško","role":"ATT","reason":"Shin Injury","goal_share":0.111,"importance":0.072,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Luke Shaw","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.024,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Tom Heaton","role":"GK","reason":"Abdominal Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Karl Darlow","role":"GK","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.001,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Ayden Heaven","role":"DEF","reason":"Illness","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Manuel Ugarte","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Lisandro Martínez","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Marcus Rashford","role":"ATT","reason":"Hip Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Kobbie Mainoo","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.456,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-2.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.9}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bournemouth are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.125,"combined_importance":0.064,"players":[{"player":"Alex Scott","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.064,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":13,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Alex Tóth","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":13},{"player":"Eli Junior Kroupi","role":"ATT","reason":"Foot Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Julián Araujo","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.16,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.768,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.232,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":7,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":6,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Michael Carrick has 57 matches in charge at Manchester United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Michael Carrick","matches_in_charge":57,"tenure_days":435,"ppm":1.58,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Marco Rose is 11 games into the job at Bournemouth, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Marco Rose","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":64,"ppm":1.64,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manchester United come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8854166666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.105,"defence":0.046,"effective_matches":12.7,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":0.096,"defence":0.024,"effective_matches":12.7,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.8,"shots":16.9,"xg_per_shot":0.099,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.33,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.09},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.9,"shots":17.8,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.299,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.17},"possession_gap":-1.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manchester United are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bournemouth are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"150 yellow cards in this referee's last 37 games, where 146 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":37,"yellows_per_match":4.05,"reds_per_match":0.081,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.161,"yellow_ratio":1.03,"red_ratio":0.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 306 km for Bournemouth.","evidence":{"travel_km":306},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.8,"temperature_c":12,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21006670999336188},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Bournemouth. Bournemouth are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. On top of that, they have conceded 12 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 8. They have been punished for very little. Meanwhile, Manchester United are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. This is where it is decided: Bournemouth make the better chances almost every week, and Manchester United have been out-created in most of their recent games.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5981,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":209613,"event_date":"2026-10-25T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":17,"home_team":"Manchester United","away_team_id":2,"away_team":"Bournemouth","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4456,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209613,"event_date":"2026-10-25T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Manchester United","away_team":"Bournemouth","polymarket_event_id":"1226467","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792821441,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#dd1422","away":"#bf1216"},"venue":{"name":"Old Trafford","city":"Manchester","capacity":74879},"pulled":[],"published":[]}