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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ipswich Town have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.67,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nottingham Forest have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.64,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"138 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 136 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":3.94,"reds_per_match":0.143,"league_yellows_per_match":3.87,"league_reds_per_match":0.139,"yellow_ratio":1.02,"red_ratio":1.03},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 183 km for Nottingham Forest.","evidence":{"travel_km":183},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 41 km/h wind.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":40.9,"temperature_c":9,"description":"rain"},"strength":0.212,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-1.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":1.6}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19799039099946608},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Nottingham Forest will grab a result against an Ipswich Town side that has lost four of their last six games. Forest are 19th, but they are playing better than that. While they have only scored 5 in their last seven, those chances should have brought about 10. They shoot often, taking 102 shots in their last six, yet only 24 were on target from poor positions. Without the midfielder who makes their chances, they lose a big chunk of their goals and their main creative spark. Forest travel well and have Dan Ndoye in form with three goals in his last five games. Clinical finishing from Dan Ndoye decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5553,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":209611,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":200,"home_team":"Ipswich Town","away_team_id":15,"away_team":"Nottingham Forest","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":42.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.421,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209611,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Ipswich Town","away_team":"Nottingham Forest","polymarket_event_id":"1196202","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T07:27:21Z"}},"computed_at":1792657898,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#16408a","away":"#d0122c"},"venue":{"name":"Portman Road Stadium","city":"Ipswich","capacity":29673},"pulled":[],"published":[]}