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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Coventry City are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.18,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fulham have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.33,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"131 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 138 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":3.74,"reds_per_match":0.143,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.161,"yellow_ratio":0.95,"red_ratio":0.89},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 159 km for Fulham.","evidence":{"travel_km":159},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":14.2,"temperature_c":14,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2100594751873119},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Fulham can drag themselves out of the bottom three here. Their underlying attacking metrics suggest a side whose recent victories are no fluke, especially with Gonzalo García leading the line after his massive summer arrival from Real Madrid alongside the stellar Alex Iwobi. Coventry City sit one spot higher in the table, but their underlying numbers tell a deeper story of struggle as they keep losing the creation battle both overall and on their own turf, which explains why they have slipped to four defeats from their last six outings. Without key defensive anchors, the hosts will invite heavy pressure. Fulham take control through midfield and punish them.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5747,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:32Z","event":{"id":209608,"event_date":"2026-10-24T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":203,"home_team":"Coventry City","away_team_id":6,"away_team":"Fulham","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":41.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4178,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209608,"event_date":"2026-10-24T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Coventry City","away_team":"Fulham","polymarket_event_id":"1226479","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T02:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792738000,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#b70f0f"},"venue":{"name":"Coventry Building Society Arena","city":"Coventry","capacity":32609},"pulled":[],"published":[]}