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Moyes","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":197,"ppm":1.3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Everton come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.111,"defence":0.308,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":-0.074,"defence":0.028,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Arsenal average 9 points more possession than Everton, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.4,"shots":14.1,"xg_per_shot":0.13,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.373,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.6,"shots":15.8,"xg_per_shot":0.103,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.343,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"possession_gap":8.8},"strength":0.353,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.9}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Arsenal are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Everton are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"78 yellow cards in this referee's last 25 games, where 98 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 25 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":25,"yellows_per_match":3.12,"reds_per_match":0.16,"league_yellows_per_match":3.94,"league_reds_per_match":0.161,"yellow_ratio":0.79,"red_ratio":1,"sample":25,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 286 km for Everton.","evidence":{"travel_km":286},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10,"temperature_c":15,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2100594751873119},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Arsenal should edge this one despite a massive injury list. The hosts dominate the ball in most matches and turn that possession into plenty of chances, while Everton rely on defensive resilience with three clean sheets in six to mask some ordinary form. The home side have won four of their last six, and their steady creation will test an Everton team that has only managed two wins from six. Even with their top scorer and main creator sidelined alongside several other key men, Arsenal control the tempo and create openings. The game rests on whether the visitors can keep a stubborn defensive block intact against relentless home pressure.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5750,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:32Z","event":{"id":209605,"event_date":"2026-10-24T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":18,"home_team":"Arsenal","away_team_id":20,"away_team":"Everton","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":66.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6635,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209605,"event_date":"2026-10-24T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Arsenal","away_team":"Everton","polymarket_event_id":"1226482","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T02:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792738001,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d41117","away":"#0c0c94"},"venue":{"name":"Emirates Stadium","city":"London","capacity":60704},"pulled":[],"published":[]}