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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.17565422761750007},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4582,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:24Z","event":{"id":209585,"event_date":"2026-10-10T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":18,"home_team":"Arsenal","away_team_id":19,"away_team":"Leeds United","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":68.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6872,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209585,"event_date":"2026-10-10T11:30:00Z","home_team":"Arsenal","away_team":"Leeds United","polymarket_event_id":"1119044","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-08T07:27:17Z"}},"computed_at":1791445005,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Arsenal take this one because they dominate possession and turn it into real opportunities across their matches, leaving Leeds behind with just two wins from their last six outings. 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