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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.814,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.186,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Both sides are in the title race with 5 games to go, and neither wants to lose it here.","evidence":{"games_left":5,"home":{"state":"title_race","position":2,"points":56,"games_left":5,"gap_to_leader":3,"gap_to_safety":32,"gap_to_europe":-16},"away":{"state":"title_race","position":1,"points":59,"games_left":5,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":35,"gap_to_europe":-19},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.75,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-5.6}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bodø/Glimt lost the reverse fixture by 5 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":5,"beaten_side":"Bodø/Glimt","reverse_score":"5-0","reverse_date":1775923200},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":4.5}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kjetil Knutsen has 60 matches in charge at Bodø/Glimt, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Kjetil Knutsen","matches_in_charge":60,"tenure_days":437,"ppm":2.17,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Morten Jensen has 30 matches in charge at Viking FK, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Morten Jensen","matches_in_charge":30,"tenure_days":231,"ppm":2.27,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.6,"after_ppm":2.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bodø/Glimt come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Viking FK come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.1875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.278,"defence":0.286,"effective_matches":14.1,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":0.243,"defence":0.185,"effective_matches":14.1,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bodø/Glimt average 16 points more possession than Viking FK, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57.8,"shots":17.6,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.332,"finishing_vs_xg":0.03},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":42.3,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.425,"finishing_vs_xg":0.97},"possession_gap":15.6},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bodø/Glimt are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.03,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Viking FK have scored 12 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.97,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"136 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 115 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":3.89,"reds_per_match":0.086,"league_yellows_per_match":3.28,"league_reds_per_match":0.166,"yellow_ratio":1.18,"red_ratio":0.52},"strength":0.166,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":4.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Viking FK travel 1027 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":1027},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10,"temperature_c":6,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23869419233085692},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Top of the table Viking FK arrive in this title race clash riding a hot streak of finishing, but their recent performances are trending down and they have struggled away from home by losing the chance count in three of four recent road trips. Meanwhile, Bodø/Glimt dominate the ball and create the better chances almost every week, yet their football has outpaced their wins because opponents score easily against them. Viking are bound to feel the pinch of missing multiple defensive stalwarts, while Bodø/Glimt must cope without key midfielders including one nursing a knee problem and six goals this season. This is where it is decided because Bodø/Glimt manufacture superior openings nearly every match while Viking have lately been out-created.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6253,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":207101,"event_date":"2026-10-30T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":121,"home_team":"Bodø/Glimt","away_team_id":2076,"away_team":"Viking FK","league_id":54,"league_name":"Eliteserien"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":54.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5451,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793366891,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#dbc512","away":"#72121c"},"venue":{"name":"Aspmyra Stadion","city":"Bodø","capacity":8270},"pulled":[],"published":[]}