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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Casper Friis Rojkaer","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":99,"ppm":0,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Viking FK come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fredrikstad FK come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.263,"defence":0.196,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.141,"defence":0.047,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":43.7,"shots":14.3,"xg_per_shot":0.136,"corners":6.4,"corners_per_shot":0.45,"finishing_vs_xg":0.64},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.2,"shots":12.1,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.368,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.21},"possession_gap":-5.5},"strength":0.221,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Viking FK have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.64,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fredrikstad FK are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.21,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.26492666754878413},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5041,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":207098,"event_date":"2026-10-17T16:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":2076,"home_team":"Viking FK","away_team_id":410,"away_team":"Fredrikstad FK","league_id":54,"league_name":"Eliteserien"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":71.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7136,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037653,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#72121c","away":"#da1f26"},"venue":{"name":"Lyse Arena","city":"Stavanger","capacity":15900},"pulled":[],"published":[]}