{"id":207080,"league_id":54,"league":"Eliteserien","kickoff":1789750800,"home":"Sarpsborg 08","away":"KFUM Oslo","home_id":2074,"away_id":2082,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,3],"colors":{"home":null,"away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.17,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.817,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.17. Sarpsborg 08 are noticeably the stronger side on expected goals, 1.79 to 1.15, and the market has not argued with it. In the same direction, KFUM Oslo are early enough into a new regime that recent form describes a different team. Everything above points the same way: Sarpsborg 08 avoiding defeat. 82% likely, returning 17p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Wrong, and not close enough to call it unlucky."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.19,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.803,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. The model reads this as a 2.94-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. Alongside it, KFUM Oslo are 5 games into a new regime, and the early bounce has not yet reverted. On that evidence, more than 1.5 goals in it. Call it 80%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}