{"id":207077,"league_id":54,"league":"Eliteserien","kickoff":1789833600,"home":"Molde FK","away":"Aalesunds FK","home_id":2077,"away_id":2080,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,2],"colors":{"home":"#186fc1","away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.11,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.856,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.11. Molde FK are drastically the stronger side on expected goals, 2.62 to 1.14, and the market has not argued with it. In the same direction, Aalesunds FK need this: fighting relegation with 8 to play. Which is why we land on Molde FK avoiding defeat. We make it 86% at 1.11. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"Unibet","model_prob":0.847619047619048,"narrative":"Home draw-no-bet at 1.14. Molde FK project to score 2.3 times what Aalesunds FK manage. Games that one-sided on paper usually are. On top of that, the table puts Aalesunds FK fighting relegation, which is the strongest single influence on how cautious this becomes. That is the case, and it ends at Molde FK coming out on top if there is a winner. That puts it at 85%, priced 1.14 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.84,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.14. 2.62 and 1.14 makes 3.76 between them — enough traffic that the goals market is the clearer read here. And the table puts Aalesunds FK fighting relegation, which is the strongest single influence on how cautious this becomes. Which is why we land on a winner rather than a draw. Call it 84%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}}]}