{"id":205191,"league_id":18,"league":"MLS","kickoff":1792279800,"home":"New York City FC","away":"Los Angeles FC","home_id":301,"away_id":292,"venue_id":1163,"rank":4,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.613,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.42,1.24],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"No call on New York City FC against Los Angeles FC. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"New York City FC are without 5 players, and Maxi Moralez is a real loss."},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","note":"Xavier Tamarit is 1 game into the job at Los Angeles FC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six."}],"lambda_home":1.4159576842525377,"lambda_away":1.2373658906845835,"corner_rate":9.69,"card_rate":0.166,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.777,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":9116,"name":"Matthew Freese","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.802},{"id":9123,"name":"Thiago Martins","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.743},{"id":9120,"name":"Tayvon Gray","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.628},{"id":9165,"name":"Max Murray","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.271},{"id":9154,"name":"Mitja Ilenič","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.891},{"id":2483,"name":"James Sands","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.873},{"id":39,"name":"Luighi Hanri","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.537},{"id":9133,"name":"Agustin Ojeda","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.866},{"id":9335,"name":"Alonso Martínez","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":9327,"name":"Andrés Perea","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.864},{"id":3152,"name":"Bénie Traoré","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.662},{"id":9163,"name":"Nico Cavallo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.544},{"id":9142,"name":"Aiden O'Neill","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.505},{"id":9144,"name":"Hannes Wolf","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.47},{"id":9130,"name":"Raul Gustavo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.47},{"id":9141,"name":"Kevin O'Toole","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.414},{"id":9138,"name":"Jonathan Shore","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.357},{"id":9162,"name":"Tomás Romero","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":266,"name":"Talles Magno","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.254},{"id":23981,"name":"Malachi Jones","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.227},{"id":9771,"name":"Matt Miazga","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.222},{"id":59236,"name":"Cooper Flax","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.777},"away":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":9181,"name":"Hugo Lloris","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.819},{"id":9188,"name":"Ryan Hollingshead","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.668},{"id":9215,"name":"Yevhen Cheberko","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.882},{"id":9184,"name":"Eddie Segura","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.752},{"id":9185,"name":"Sergi Palencia","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.485},{"id":9182,"name":"Ryan Porteous","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.703},{"id":9202,"name":"Mathieu Choinière","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.694},{"id":9187,"name":"Mark Delgado","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.622},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.766},{"id":9190,"name":"Son Heung-min","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.76},{"id":9302,"name":"Tyler Boyd","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":9296,"name":"Jacob Shaffelburg","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.541},{"id":9183,"name":"Nkosi Tafari","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.488},{"id":9853,"name":"Aaron Long","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.462},{"id":1205,"name":"Armindo Sieb","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":18929,"name":"Sergio Vásquez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.295},{"id":9944,"name":"Jude Terry","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.289},{"id":9200,"name":"Kenny Nielsen","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":9193,"name":"Ryan Raposo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":9797,"name":"Igor Jesus","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.254},{"id":148685,"name":"Tommy Mihalic","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.224},{"id":8996,"name":"Leo Walta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.208},{"id":17339,"name":"Thayllon Roberth","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.127}],"confidence":0.8},"unavailable":[{"id":9802,"name":"Andrew Baiera","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":21344,"name":"Arnau  Farnos","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":12181,"name":"Kai Trewin","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":9913,"name":"Keaton Parks","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":9152,"name":"Maxi Moralez","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":23987,"name":"Cabral Carter","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Arm Injury"},{"id":9338,"name":"Jeremy Ebobisse","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":9186,"name":"Timothy Tillman","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Leg Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":9116,"name":"Matthew Freese","side":"home"},{"id":9123,"name":"Thiago Martins","side":"home"},{"id":9120,"name":"Tayvon Gray","side":"home"},{"id":9165,"name":"Max Murray","side":"home"},{"id":9154,"name":"Mitja Ilenič","side":"home"},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","side":"home"},{"id":2483,"name":"James Sands","side":"home"},{"id":39,"name":"Luighi Hanri","side":"home"},{"id":9133,"name":"Agustin Ojeda","side":"home"},{"id":9335,"name":"Alonso Martínez","side":"home"},{"id":9327,"name":"Andrés Perea","side":"home"},{"id":3152,"name":"Bénie Traoré","side":"home"},{"id":9163,"name":"Nico Cavallo","side":"home"},{"id":9142,"name":"Aiden O'Neill","side":"home"},{"id":9144,"name":"Hannes Wolf","side":"home"},{"id":9130,"name":"Raul Gustavo","side":"home"},{"id":9141,"name":"Kevin O'Toole","side":"home"},{"id":9138,"name":"Jonathan Shore","side":"home"},{"id":9162,"name":"Tomás Romero","side":"home"},{"id":266,"name":"Talles Magno","side":"home"},{"id":23981,"name":"Malachi Jones","side":"home"},{"id":9771,"name":"Matt Miazga","side":"home"},{"id":59236,"name":"Cooper Flax","side":"home"},{"id":9802,"name":"Andrew Baiera","side":"home"},{"id":4993,"name":"João Loiola","side":"home"},{"id":36743,"name":"Kamran Acito","side":"home"},{"id":9746,"name":"Gregory Ranjitsingh","side":"home"},{"id":12181,"name":"Kai Trewin","side":"home"},{"id":9152,"name":"Maxi Moralez","side":"home"},{"id":23982,"name":"Kevin Pierre","side":"home"},{"id":9170,"name":"Máximo Carrizo","side":"home"},{"id":53710,"name":"Jacob Arroyave","side":"home"},{"id":9913,"name":"Keaton Parks","side":"home"},{"id":9953,"name":"Peter Molinari","side":"home"},{"id":159952,"name":"El Hadij Samb","side":"home"},{"id":21344,"name":"Arnau  Farnos","side":"home"},{"id":9181,"name":"Hugo Lloris","side":"away"},{"id":9188,"name":"Ryan Hollingshead","side":"away"},{"id":9215,"name":"Yevhen Cheberko","side":"away"},{"id":9184,"name":"Eddie Segura","side":"away"},{"id":9185,"name":"Sergi Palencia","side":"away"},{"id":9182,"name":"Ryan Porteous","side":"away"},{"id":9202,"name":"Mathieu Choinière","side":"away"},{"id":9187,"name":"Mark Delgado","side":"away"},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","side":"away"},{"id":9190,"name":"Son Heung-min","side":"away"},{"id":9302,"name":"Tyler Boyd","side":"away"},{"id":9296,"name":"Jacob Shaffelburg","side":"away"},{"id":9183,"name":"Nkosi Tafari","side":"away"},{"id":9853,"name":"Aaron Long","side":"away"},{"id":1205,"name":"Armindo Sieb","side":"away"},{"id":18929,"name":"Sergio Vásquez","side":"away"},{"id":9944,"name":"Jude Terry","side":"away"},{"id":9200,"name":"Kenny Nielsen","side":"away"},{"id":9193,"name":"Ryan Raposo","side":"away"},{"id":9797,"name":"Igor Jesus","side":"away"},{"id":148685,"name":"Tommy Mihalic","side":"away"},{"id":8996,"name":"Leo Walta","side":"away"},{"id":17339,"name":"Thayllon Roberth","side":"away"},{"id":36572,"name":"Christian Diaz","side":"away"},{"id":9338,"name":"Jeremy Ebobisse","side":"away"},{"id":16668,"name":"Marius Aiyenero","side":"away"},{"id":206721,"name":"Charlie Kosakoff","side":"away"},{"id":9198,"name":"Thomas Hasal","side":"away"},{"id":23987,"name":"Cabral Carter","side":"away"},{"id":9186,"name":"Timothy Tillman","side":"away"},{"id":159945,"name":"DeCarlo Guerra","side":"away"},{"id":73554,"name":"Sebastian Nava","side":"away"},{"id":9192,"name":"David Martínez Morales","side":"away"},{"id":9189,"name":"Nathan Ordaz","side":"away"},{"id":1011,"name":"Stephen Eustaquio","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":9152,"name":"Maxi Moralez","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":14,"starts":13,"goals":1,"assists":6,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":11,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":14,"tracked_starts":13},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Orlando City SC","kickoff":1772911800,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.131,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9913,"name":"Keaton Parks","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":18,"starts":12,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":8,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":18,"tracked_starts":12},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Orlando City SC","kickoff":1772911800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.065,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9802,"name":"Andrew Baiera","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":3,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":21344,"name":"Arnau  Farnos","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":8,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.004,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":12181,"name":"Kai Trewin","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":15,"starts":14,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":10,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":15,"tracked_starts":14},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.032,"country":{"team":"Australia","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1783101600},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"MID","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":28,"starts":28,"goals":15,"assists":4,"big_chances":9,"clean_sheets":13,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":27,"tracked_starts":27},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Cincinnati","kickoff":1776900600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"4-4","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","ever_present","best_performer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.516,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":39,"name":"Luighi Hanri","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":6,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Cincinnati","kickoff":1787182200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.088,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":55,"country":0}},{"id":9335,"name":"Alonso Martínez","side":"home","team":"New York City FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":28,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.001,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":118,"country":0}},{"id":9186,"name":"Timothy Tillman","side":"away","team":"Los Angeles FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":19,"starts":12,"goals":1,"assists":2,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":9,"team_games":30,"tracked_apps":19,"tracked_starts":12},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Seattle Sounders FC","kickoff":1779672300,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.069,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":23987,"name":"Cabral Carter","side":"away","team":"Los Angeles FC","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Arm Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":30,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Colorado Rapids","kickoff":1787189400,"goals":0,"assists":0,"score":"0-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.005,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9338,"name":"Jeremy Ebobisse","side":"away","team":"Los Angeles FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":15,"starts":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":30,"tracked_apps":15,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.004,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","side":"away","team":"Los Angeles FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":27,"starts":25,"goals":15,"assists":5,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":15,"team_games":30,"tracked_apps":27,"tracked_starts":25},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":1,"scoredIn":3,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Orlando City SC","kickoff":1775352600,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"6-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","ever_present","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.498,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}},{"id":9190,"name":"Son Heung-min","side":"away","team":"Los Angeles FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":26,"starts":23,"goals":6,"assists":10,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":13,"team_games":30,"tracked_apps":26,"tracked_starts":23},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":4},"standout":{"opponent":"Orlando City SC","kickoff":1775352600,"goals":0,"assists":4,"score":"6-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_creator","best_performer"],"importance":0.342,"country":{"team":"South Korea","apps":11,"goals":4,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782349200},"lately":{"apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":161,"country":1}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":9063,"name":"Lionel Messi","goals":23,"rank":1},{"id":9331,"name":"Petar Musa","goals":19,"rank":2},{"id":9066,"name":"Milan Iloski","goals":18,"rank":3},{"id":9118,"name":"Brian White","goals":17,"rank":4},{"id":9169,"name":"Kévin Denkey","goals":17,"rank":5},{"id":9280,"name":"Sam Surridge","goals":17,"rank":6},{"id":9124,"name":"Kelvin Yeboah","goals":16,"rank":7},{"id":9191,"name":"Denis Bouanga","goals":15,"rank":8},{"id":9284,"name":"Hany Mukhtar","goals":15,"rank":9},{"id":9085,"name":"Luis Suárez","goals":15,"rank":10},{"id":9148,"name":"Nicolás Fernández","goals":15,"rank":11},{"id":9506,"name":"Preston Judd","goals":15,"rank":12},{"id":9595,"name":"Prince Owusu","goals":15,"rank":13},{"id":9080,"name":"Tai Baribo","goals":15,"rank":14},{"id":216,"name":"Guilherme","goals":14,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":4,"home_wins":1,"draws":2,"away_wins":1,"home_goals":6,"away_goals":6,"avg_total_goals":3,"home_win_rate":0.25,"away_win_rate":0.25,"recent_matches":[{"away":"New York City FC","date":"2025-03-02T03:30:00+00:00","home":"Los Angeles FC","score":"1-0","event_id":5956,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":301,"home_team_id":292},{"away":"New York City FC","date":"2021-05-29T21:00:00+00:00","home":"Los Angeles FC","score":"1-2","event_id":270834,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":301,"home_team_id":292},{"away":"Los Angeles FC","date":"2019-03-17T19:00:00+00:00","home":"New York City FC","score":"2-2","event_id":293230,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":292,"home_team_id":301},{"away":"New York City FC","date":"2018-05-14T00:30:00+00:00","home":"Los Angeles FC","score":"2-2","event_id":334014,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":301,"home_team_id":292}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":301,"position":19,"played":29,"points":33,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"New York City FC","won":8,"drawn":9,"lost":12,"goals_for":43,"goals_against":40,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":292,"position":11,"played":29,"points":42,"goal_diff":13,"team_name":"Los Angeles FC","won":11,"drawn":9,"lost":9,"goals_for":44,"goals_against":31,"group":null},"size":30},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLWLDL","venue_ppg":0.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1,"record":"1-3-2","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.5,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"winless 4","sequence":"DWLDLD","venue_ppg":0.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"New York City FC are without 5 players, and Maxi Moralez is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.073,"combined_importance":0.232,"players":[{"player":"Maxi Moralez","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.024,"importance":0.131,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Keaton Parks","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.049,"importance":0.065,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14},{"player":"Kai Trewin","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.032,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14},{"player":"Arnau  Farnos","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14},{"player":"Andrew Baiera","role":"DEF","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.58,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Los Angeles FC are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.031,"combined_importance":0.078,"players":[{"player":"Timothy Tillman","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0.031,"importance":0.069,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Cabral Carter","role":"GK","reason":"Arm Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.005,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":2},{"player":"Jeremy Ebobisse","role":"ATT","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.195,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.777,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.223,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pascal Jansen has 24 matches in charge at New York City FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pascal Jansen","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":197,"ppm":0.96,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Xavier Tamarit is 1 game into the job at Los Angeles FC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Xavier Tamarit","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":7,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.8,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"New York City FC come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.067,"defence":0.085,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.053,"defence":0.155,"effective_matches":17.1,"shrunk":0.32}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.4,"shots":12.1,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.359,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.17},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.3,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":6.4,"corners_per_shot":0.453,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.08},"possession_gap":4.1},"strength":0.163,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"New York City FC are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Los Angeles FC are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":22.2,"temperature_c":13,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23201325605212983},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4993,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":205191,"event_date":"2026-10-17T23:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":301,"home_team":"New York City FC","away_team_id":292,"away_team":"Los Angeles FC","league_id":18,"league_name":"MLS"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":39.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3986,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":205191,"event_date":"2026-10-17T23:30:00Z","home_team":"New York City FC","away_team":"Los Angeles FC","polymarket_event_id":"1131542","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.38,"New York City FC 0 - 0 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 0 - 1 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 0 - 2 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 0 - 3 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 0 - 4 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 0 - 5 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 1 - 0 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 1 - 1 Los Angeles FC":0.155,"New York City FC 1 - 2 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 1 - 3 Los Angeles FC":0.07,"New York City FC 1 - 4 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 1 - 5 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 2 - 0 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 2 - 1 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 2 - 2 Los Angeles FC":0.085,"New York City FC 2 - 3 Los Angeles FC":0.07,"New York City FC 2 - 4 Los Angeles FC":0.07,"New York City FC 2 - 5 Los Angeles FC":0.055,"New York City FC 3 - 0 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 3 - 1 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 3 - 2 Los Angeles FC":0.07,"New York City FC 3 - 3 Los Angeles FC":0.07,"New York City FC 3 - 4 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 3 - 5 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 4 - 0 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 4 - 1 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 4 - 2 Los Angeles FC":0.07,"New York City FC 4 - 3 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 4 - 4 Los Angeles FC":0.055,"New York City FC 4 - 5 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 5 - 0 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 5 - 1 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 5 - 2 Los Angeles FC":0.045,"New York City FC 5 - 3 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 5 - 4 Los Angeles FC":0.375,"New York City FC 5 - 5 Los Angeles FC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-11T15:57:36Z"}},"computed_at":1792037576,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#292b5e","away":"#c6a36c"},"venue":{"name":"Citi Field","city":"New York","capacity":41922},"pulled":[],"published":[]}