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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Ohkyun Gong","matches_in_charge":0,"tenure_days":90,"ppm":null,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.7,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":4.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daejeon Hana Citizen come in on 19 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":18.791666666666668,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":18.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors come in on 19 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":18.895833333333332,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":18.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.203,"defence":-0.031,"effective_matches":17.7,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":0.055,"defence":0.11,"effective_matches":17.7,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Daejeon Hana Citizen work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.9,"shots":15.2,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.407,"finishing_vs_xg":0.27},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.7,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.089,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.28,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.27},"possession_gap":2.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daejeon Hana Citizen have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 60 km for Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors.","evidence":{"travel_km":60},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6,"temperature_c":25,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":-0.03957581797046272},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Daejeon Hana Citizen will take charge of this game despite sitting 6th while Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors occupy 4th. Look beneath recent scores and the true story emerges. Daejeon construct superior openings almost every week, creating finer openings in seven of their last nine fixtures and four of their last five on home soil. Jeonbuk are slipping: their last four games have been their poorest for chances created and conceded. Both managers deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Daejeon become a far stronger proposition at home. With Lee Chang-geun named in the league's team of the season so far, chance creation is where this match is decided.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4395,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":205172,"event_date":"2026-10-09T05:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1958,"home_team":"Daejeon Hana Citizen","away_team_id":1954,"away_team":"Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors","league_id":50,"league_name":"K League 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":41.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4137,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791473619,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":null},"venue":{"name":"Daejeon World Cup Stadium","city":"Daejeon","capacity":40407},"pulled":[],"published":[]}